Prognostic Nomogram to Predict Progression-free Survival in Patients with Platinum-sensitive Recurrent Ovarian Cancer

Overview

Journal Br J Cancer

Specialty Oncology

Date 2011 Sep 15

PMID 21915127

Citations 12

Authors

C K Lee

R J Simes

C Brown

S Lord

U Wagner

M Plante

I Vergote

C Pisano

G Parma

A Burges

H Bourgeois

T Hogberg

J Bentley

L Angleitner-Boubenizek

A Ferrero

B Richter

H Hirte

V Gebski

J Pfisterer

E Pujade-Lauraine

M Friedlander

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Patients with platinum-sensitive recurrent ovarian cancer are a heterogeneous group, and it is not possible to accurately predict the progression-free survival (PFS) in these patients. We developed and validated a nomogram to help improve prediction of PFS in patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.

Methods: The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=955) from the CALYPSO trial and validated in the AGO-OVAR 2.5 Study (n=340). The proportional-hazards model (nomogram) was based on pre-treatment characteristics.

Results: The nomogram had a concordance index (C-index) of 0.645. Significant predictors were tumour size platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, CA-125, number of organ metastatic sites and white blood count. When the nomogram was applied without CA-125 (CA-125 was not available in validation cohort), the C-indices were 0.624 (training) and 0.594 (validation). When classification was based only on the platinum-chemotherapy-free interval, the indices were 0.571 (training) and 0.560 (validation). The calibration plot in the validation cohort based on four predictors (without CA-125) suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted 12-month PFS probabilities.

Conclusion: This nomogram, using five pre-treatment characteristics, improves prediction of PFS in patients with platinum-sensitive ovarian cancer having platinum-based chemotherapy. It will be useful for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials and also for counselling patients.

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