Meteorological Factors-based Spatio-temporal Mapping and Predicting Malaria in Central China

Overview

Journal Am J Trop Med Hyg

Specialty Tropical Medicine

Date 2011 Sep 8

PMID 21896823

Citations 18

Authors

Fang Huang

Shuisen Zhou

Shaosen Zhang

Hongwei Zhang

Weidong Li

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Despite significant reductions in the overall burden of malaria in the 20th century, this disease still represents a significant public health problem in China, especially in central areas. Understanding the spatio-temporal distribution of malaria is essential in the planning and implementing of effective control measures. In this study, normalized meteorological factors were incorporated in spatio-temporal models. Seven models were established in WinBUGS software by using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. M₁, M₂, and M₃ modeled separate meteorological factors, and M₃, which modeled rainfall performed better than M₁ and M₂, which modeled average temperature and relative humidity, respectively. M₇ was the best fitting models on the basis of based on deviance information criterion and predicting errors. The results showed that the way rainfall influencing malaria incidence was different from other factors, which could be interpreted as rainfall having a greater influence than other factors.

Citing Articles

Predicting the impact of climate change on the re-emergence of malaria cases in China using LSTMSeq2Seq deep learning model: a modelling and prediction analysis study.

Kamana E, Zhao J, Bai D BMJ Open. 2022; 12(3):e053922.

PMID: 35361642 PMC: 8971767. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053922.

Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases in China: A Review of Evidence and Implications for Risk Management.

Wu Y, Huang C Biology (Basel). 2022; 11(3).

PMID: 35336744 PMC: 8945209. DOI: 10.3390/biology11030370.

Prevalence of antifolate drug resistance markers in Plasmodium vivax in China.

Huang F, Cui Y, Yan H, Liu H, Guo X, Wang G Front Med. 2022; 16(1):83-92.

PMID: 35257293 DOI: 10.1007/s11684-021-0894-x.

Establishing and applying an adaptive strategy and approach to eliminating malaria: practice and lessons learnt from China from 2011 to 2020.

Huang F, Feng X, Zhou S, Tang L, Xia Z Emerg Microbes Infect. 2022; 11(1):314-325.

PMID: 34989665 PMC: 8786258. DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2022.2026740.

Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.

Lee S, Jarvis C, Edmunds W, Economou T, Lowe R J R Soc Interface. 2021; 18(178):20210096.

PMID: 34034534 PMC: 8150046. DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0096.

References

OMeara W, Mwangi T, Williams T, McKenzie F, Snow R, Marsh K . Relationship between exposure, clinical malaria, and age in an area of changing transmission intensity. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2008; 79(2):185-91. PMC: 2547116. View

Killeen G, Knols B, Gu W . Taking malaria transmission out of the bottle: implications of mosquito dispersal for vector-control interventions. Lancet Infect Dis. 2003; 3(5):297-303. DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(03)00611-x. View

Zhou S, Huang F, Wang J, Zhang S, Su Y, Tang L . Geographical, meteorological and vectorial factors related to malaria re-emergence in Huang-Huai River of central China. Malar J. 2010; 9:337. PMC: 3003275. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-9-337. View

Knorr-Held L, Besag J . Modelling risk from a disease in time and space. Stat Med. 1998; 17(18):2045-2060. DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19980930)17:18<2045::aid-sim943>3.0.co;2-p. View

Zhou G, Sirichaisinthop J, Sattabongkot J, Jones J, Bjornstad O, Yan G . Spatio-temporal distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and p. Vivax malaria in Thailand. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2005; 72(3):256-62. View

van der Hoek W, Konradsen F, Perera D, Amerasinghe P, Amerasinghe F . Correlation between rainfall and malaria in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 1998; 91(8):945-9. DOI: 10.1080/00034989760347. View

Zhu L, Carlin B . Comparing hierarchical models for spatio-temporally misaligned data using the deviance information criterion. Stat Med. 2000; 19(17-18):2265-78. DOI: 10.1002/1097-0258(20000915/30)19:17/18<2265::aid-sim568>3.0.co;2-6. View

Bernardinelli L, Clayton D, Montomoli C . Bayesian estimates of disease maps: how important are priors?. Stat Med. 1995; 14(21-22):2411-31. DOI: 10.1002/sim.4780142111. View

Knorr-Held L, Rasser G . Bayesian detection of clusters and discontinuities in disease maps. Biometrics. 2000; 56(1):13-21. DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341x.2000.00013.x. View

10.

Lawson A . Disease cluster detection: a critique and a Bayesian proposal. Stat Med. 2006; 25(5):897-916. DOI: 10.1002/sim.2417. View

11.

Abeku T, de Vlas S, Borsboom G, Teklehaimanot A, Kebede A, Olana D . Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best. Trop Med Int Health. 2002; 7(10):851-7. DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.2002.00924.x. View

12.

Mendis C, de Zoysa A, Abhayawardena T, Carter R, Herath P, Mendis K . Characteristics of malaria transmission in Kataragama, Sri Lanka: a focus for immuno-epidemiological studies. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1990; 42(4):298-308. DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.1990.42.298. View

13.

CRAIG M, Kleinschmidt I, Nawn J, Le Sueur D, Sharp B . Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: part I. The impact of climatic factors. Trop Med Int Health. 2004; 9(12):1247-57. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2004.01340.x. View

14.

Okiro E, Hay S, Gikandi P, Sharif S, Noor A, Peshu N . The decline in paediatric malaria admissions on the coast of Kenya. Malar J. 2007; 6:151. PMC: 2194691. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-6-151. View

15.

Hay S, Were E, Renshaw M, Noor A, Ochola S, Olusanmi I . Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study. Lancet. 2003; 361(9370):1705-6. PMC: 3164796. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)13366-1. View

16.

Carter R . Spatial simulation of malaria transmission and its control by malaria transmission blocking vaccination. Int J Parasitol. 2002; 32(13):1617-24. DOI: 10.1016/s0020-7519(02)00190-x. View

17.

Zhou S, Wang Y, Fang W, Tang L . [Malaria situation in the People's Republic of China in 2008]. Zhongguo Ji Sheng Chong Xue Yu Ji Sheng Chong Bing Za Zhi. 2010; 27(6):457, 455-6. View

18.

Thomson M, Indeje M, Connor S, Dilley M, Ward N . Malaria early warning in Kenya and seasonal climate forecasts. Lancet. 2003; 362(9383):580. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(03)14135-9. View

19.

Teklehaimanot H, Lipsitch M, Teklehaimanot A, Schwartz J . Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia I. Patterns of lagged weather effects reflect biological mechanisms. Malar J. 2004; 3:41. PMC: 535540. DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-3-41. View

20.

Tang L . Progress in malaria control in China. Chin Med J (Engl). 2002; 113(1):89-92. View