A Comparative Analysis of the Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Profiles of Pacific Peoples and Europeans Living in New Zealand Assessed in Routine Primary Care: PREDICT CVD-11

Aim: To investigate the differences in the baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk profiles of Pacific peoples and Europeans assessed in routine primary care practice by PREDICT, a web-based clinical decision support programme for assessing and managing CVD risk.

Methods: PREDICT has been implemented in primary care practices from nine consenting PHOs in Auckland and Northland. Between 2002 and January 2009, over 70,000 CVD risk assessments were conducted. These analyses compare CVD risk factors for Pacific and European patients.

Results: Baseline risk assessments were completed for 39,835 Europeans and 10,301 Pacific peoples aged 35-74 years. Over 85% of the Pacific cohort was comprised of the four main Pacific ethnic groups in New Zealand (Samoan, Tongan, Cook Island Maori and Niuean). Fijians (n=1341) were excluded from the analyses because of a likely misclassification error with Indian Fijians. On average, Pacific peoples in the PREDICT cohort were 4 years younger at the time of risk assessment than Europeans, and were overrepresented in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation. At risk assessment, Pacific men were 1.5 times as likely to be current smokers as European men, whereas similar or lower proportions of Pacific women smoked compared with European women. Pacific peoples were approximately three times more likely to have diabetes as Europeans. Pacific peoples had higher diastolic blood pressures and Pacific women had higher total cholesterol/HDL ratios. Both Pacific men and women had a significantly higher predicted risk of CVD in the next 5 years than Europeans, based on the Framingham risk score.

Conclusions: The PREDICT programme has already generated the largest cohort of Pacific peoples ever to be studied in New Zealand. This comparative analysis of patients who have been screened highlights significant disparities in CVD risk factors for Pacific peoples particularly for diabetes in both sexes and for smoking in men. Targeting these modifiable risk factors will be important in addressing the widening inequalities in CVD outcomes between Pacific peoples and Europeans.