Changes in Youth Smoking, 1976-2002: A Time-Series Analysis

Overview

Journal Youth Soc

Publisher Sage Publications

Specialty Pediatrics

Date 2009 Aug 5

PMID 19652692

Citations 9

Authors

Fred C Pampel

Jade Aguilar

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

During the past several decades, smoking prevalence among youth has fluctuated in puzzling and unexpected ways. To help understand these changes, this study tests seven explanations: (a) compositional changes, (b) sample selection, (c) adult smoking, (d) social strain, (e) cigarette prices, (f) tobacco advertising, and (g) other drug use. Figures on smoking prevalence come from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Surveys from 1976-2002, whereas figures on aggregate determinants for the same time period come from government publications. Graphs of the time-series trends to determine temporal correspondence and time-series regression models to test for statistical influence reveal two variables that have expected effects. Increases in cigarette prices reduce smoking, particularly in the most recent years, and higher marijuana initiation (or use) is associated with greater smoking during most of the time period. However, much of the change in youth smoking, particularly the most recent rise and fall, remains unexplained.

Citing Articles

The Diverging Trend in Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke Among US Children.

Twum F, Tome J, Ledel E, Roy V, Mallhi A, Aguirre D J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2023; 11(3):1718-1729.

PMID: 37326795 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-023-01645-y.

Crossover Trends in Current Cigarette Smoking Between Racial and Ethnic Groups of US Adolescents Aged 12-19 Years Old, 1999-2018.

Nwaobi S, Richmond H, Babatunde D, Twum F, Mallhi A, Wei Y J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2022; 10(5):2114-2123.

PMID: 36006586 PMC: 9406249. DOI: 10.1007/s40615-022-01391-7.

Flavorless vs. Flavored Electronic Cigarette-Generated Aerosol and E-Liquid on the Growth of Common Oral Commensal Streptococci.

Fischman J, Sista S, Lee D, Cuadra G, Palazzolo D Front Physiol. 2020; 11:585416.

PMID: 33329035 PMC: 7732452. DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2020.585416.

Associations between child maltreatment, cigarette smoking, and nicotine dependence in young adults with a history of regular smoking.

Cammack A, Haardorfer R, Suglia S Ann Epidemiol. 2019; 40:13-20.e4.

PMID: 31711840 PMC: 6911618. DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2019.10.003.

Australian School Student Perceptions of Effective Anti-tobacco Health Warnings.

Drovandi A, Teague P, Glass B, Malau-Aduli B Front Public Health. 2018; 6:297.

PMID: 30386764 PMC: 6199459. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2018.00297.

References

Anda R, Croft J, Felitti V, Nordenberg D, Giles W, Williamson D . Adverse childhood experiences and smoking during adolescence and adulthood. JAMA. 1999; 282(17):1652-8. DOI: 10.1001/jama.282.17.1652. View

Dedobbeleer N, Beland F, Contandriopoulos A, Adrian M . Gender and the social context of smoking behaviour. Soc Sci Med. 2003; 58(1):1-12. DOI: 10.1016/s0277-9536(03)00139-4. View

Nelson D, Giovino G, Shopland D, Mowery P, Mills S, Eriksen M . Trends in cigarette smoking among US adolescents, 1974 through 1991. Am J Public Health. 1995; 85(1):34-40. PMC: 1615278. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.85.1.34. View

Farrelly M, Davis K, Haviland M, Messeri P, G Healton C . Evidence of a dose-response relationship between "truth" antismoking ads and youth smoking prevalence. Am J Public Health. 2005; 95(3):425-31. PMC: 1449196. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2004.049692. View

Unger J, Hamilton J, Sussman S . A family member's job loss as a risk factor for smoking among adolescents. Health Psychol. 2004; 23(3):308-13. DOI: 10.1037/0278-6133.23.3.308. View

Gilpin E, Pierce J . Trends in adolescent smoking initiation in the United States: is tobacco marketing an influence?. Tob Control. 1997; 6(2):122-7. PMC: 1759547. DOI: 10.1136/tc.6.2.122. View

Blum R, Beuhring T, Shew M, Bearinger L, Sieving R, Resnick M . The effects of race/ethnicity, income, and family structure on adolescent risk behaviors. Am J Public Health. 2000; 90(12):1879-84. PMC: 1446419. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.90.12.1879. View

Bachman J, Wallace Jr J, OMalley P, Johnston L, Kurth C, Neighbors H . Racial/Ethnic differences in smoking, drinking, and illicit drug use among American high school seniors, 1976-89. Am J Public Health. 1991; 81(3):372-7. PMC: 1405013. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.81.3.372. View

Duhig A, Cavallo D, McKee S, George T, Krishnan-Sarin S . Daily patterns of alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use in adolescent smokers and nonsmokers. Addict Behav. 2004; 30(2):271-83. DOI: 10.1016/j.addbeh.2004.05.016. View

10.

Patrick D, Cheadle A, Thompson D, Diehr P, Koepsell T, Kinne S . The validity of self-reported smoking: a review and meta-analysis. Am J Public Health. 1994; 84(7):1086-93. PMC: 1614767. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.84.7.1086. View

11.

Brook J, Balka E, Whiteman M . The risks for late adolescence of early adolescent marijuana use. Am J Public Health. 1999; 89(10):1549-54. PMC: 1508814. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.89.10.1549. View

12.

An L, OMalley P, Schulenberg J, Bachman J, Johnston L . Changes at the high end of risk in cigarette smoking among US high school seniors, 1976-1995. Am J Public Health. 1999; 89(5):699-705. PMC: 1508726. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.89.5.699. View

13.

Pampel F . Diffusion, cohort change, and social patterns of smoking(). Soc Sci Res. 2012; 34(1):117-139. PMC: 3319442. DOI: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2003.12.003. View

14.

Jefferis B, Power C, Graham H, Manor O . Effects of childhood socioeconomic circumstances on persistent smoking. Am J Public Health. 2004; 94(2):279-85. PMC: 1448244. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.94.2.279. View

15.

Droomers M, Schrijvers C, Casswell S, Mackenbach J . Father's occupational group and daily smoking during adolescence: patterns and predictors. Am J Public Health. 2005; 95(4):681-8. PMC: 1449241. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2002.002774. View

16.

Emmons K, Wechsler H, Dowdall G, Abraham M . Predictors of smoking among US college students. Am J Public Health. 1998; 88(1):104-7. PMC: 1508383. DOI: 10.2105/ajph.88.1.104. View

17.

Ross H, Chaloupka F . The effect of cigarette prices on youth smoking. Health Econ. 2003; 12(3):217-30. DOI: 10.1002/hec.709. View

18.

Sneed C, Morisky D, Rotheram-Borus M, Ebin V, Malotte C . Patterns of adolescent alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use over a 6-month period. Addict Behav. 2001; 26(3):415-23. DOI: 10.1016/s0306-4603(00)00134-9. View

19.

Ellickson P, Perlman M, Klein D . Explaining racial/ethnic differences in smoking during the transition to adulthood. Addict Behav. 2003; 28(5):915-31. DOI: 10.1016/s0306-4603(01)00285-4. View

20.

Tauras J, Chaloupka F, Farrelly M, Giovino G, Wakefield M, Johnston L . State tobacco control spending and youth smoking. Am J Public Health. 2005; 95(2):338-44. PMC: 1449175. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2004.039727. View