Prevalence of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the Japanese General Population Predicted by the MDRD Equation Modified by a Japanese Coefficient

Background: The number of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Japan has continuously increased in the past three decades. In 2005, 36,063 patients whose average age was 66 years entered a new dialysis program. This large number of ESRD patients could be just the tip of the iceberg of an increasing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, to date, a nationwide epidemiological study has not been conducted yet to survey the CKD population.

Methods: Data for 527,594 (male, 211,034; female, 316,560) participants were obtained from the general adult population aged over 20 years who received annual health check programs in 2000-2004, from seven different prefectures in Japan: Hokkaido, Fukushima, Ibaraki, Tokyo, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa prefectures. The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for each participant was estimated from the serum creatinine values, using the abbreviated Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equation modified by the Japanese coefficient.

Results: The prevalences of CKD stage 3 in the study population, stratified by age groups of 20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80-89 years, were 1.4%, 3.6%, 10.8%, 15.9%, 31.8%, 44.0%, and 59.1%, respectively, predicting 19.1 million patients with stage 3 CKD in the Japanese general adult population of 103.2 million in 2004. CKD stage 4 + 5 was predicted in 200,000 patients in the Japanese general adult population. Comorbidity of hypertension, diabetes, and proteinuria increased as the estimated GFR (eGFR) decreased. The prevalence of concurrent CKD was significantly higher in hypertensive and diabetic populations than in the study population overall when CKD was defined as being present with an eGFR of less than 40 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) instead of less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2).

Conclusions: About 20% of the Japanese adult population (i.e., approximately 19 million people) are predicted to have stage 3 to 5 CKD, as defined by a GFR of less than 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2).