Limited Value of Morphological Assessment at Days 1 and 2 to Predict Blastocyst Development Potential: a Prospective Study Based on 4042 Embryos

Background: Non-invasive and routine developmental markers are available to select the most viable embryo; however their respective values in terms of blastocyst development potential remain difficult to distinguish.

Methods: During this prospective study, the sequential growth of 4042 embryos individually cultured from day 1 to day 5/6 was recorded. Pronuclear morphology on day 1, and early cleavage, cell number and fragmentation rate on day 2 were evaluated for each zygote. Additionally, blastocyst transfers were analysed with regard to their implantation ability and early embryo development parameters.

Results: Once adjusted to each other, each of the four parameters remained related to blastocyst development. Early cleavage and cell number on day 2 were the most powerful parameters to predict the development of a good morphology blastocyst at day 5. Moreover, whereas transfers of a good morphology blastocyst were associated with high implantation and live birth rates, parameters of early development were not helpful in predicting their implantation ability.

Conclusions: The combination of all four parameters allowed the prediction of blastocyst development with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.688, which represents a fairly low prediction of embryo viability. Such results indicate that it is necessary to search for additional criteria, including the ability of the blastocyst to develop.