A Model for the Spread and Control of Pandemic Influenza in an Isolated Geographical Region

Overview

Journal J R Soc Interface

Specialties Biology
Biomedical Engineering
Biophysics

Date 2007 Jan 26

PMID 17251145

Citations 19

Authors

M G Roberts

M Baker

L C Jennings

G Sertsou

N Wilson

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

In the event of an influenza pandemic, the most probable way in which the virus would be introduced to an isolated geographical area is by an infected traveller. We use a mathematical model, structured on the location at which infection occurs and based on published parameters for influenza, to describe an epidemic in a community of one million people. The model is then modified to reflect a variety of control strategies based on social distancing measures, targeted antiviral treatment and antiviral prophylaxis and home quarantine, and the effectiveness of the strategies is compared. The results suggest that the only single strategy that would be successful in preventing an epidemic (with R0=2.0) is targeted antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, and that closing schools combined with either closing work places or home quarantine would only prevent such an epidemic if these strategies were combined with a modest level of antiviral coverage.

Citing Articles

Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.

Ahmed F, Zviedrite N, Uzicanin A BMC Public Health. 2018; 18(1):518.

PMID: 29669545 PMC: 5907354. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-018-5446-1.

Modelling the epidemic spread of an H1N1 influenza outbreak in a rural university town.

Vaidya N, Morgan M, Jones T, Miller L, Lapin S, Schwartz E Epidemiol Infect. 2014; 143(8):1610-20.

PMID: 25323631 PMC: 9507230. DOI: 10.1017/S0950268814002568.

The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

Jackson C, Mangtani P, Hawker J, Olowokure B, Vynnycky E PLoS One. 2014; 9(5):e97297.

PMID: 24830407 PMC: 4022492. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0097297.

Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy.

Gilbert J, Meyers L, Galvani A, Townsend J Epidemics. 2014; 6:37-45.

PMID: 24593920 PMC: 4316830. DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002.

Epidemic models with uncertainty in the reproduction number.

Roberts M J Math Biol. 2012; 66(7):1463-74.

PMID: 22562623 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-012-0540-y.

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