Low-carbon Energy Policy and Ambient Air Pollution in Shanghai, China: a Health-based Economic Assessment

Energy and related health issues are of growing concern worldwide today. To investigate the potential public health and economic impact of ambient air pollution under various low-carbon energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the exposure level of Shanghai residents to air pollution under various planned scenarios, and assessed the public health impact using concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. We then estimated the corresponding economic values of the health effects based on unit values for each health outcome. Our results show that ambient air pollution in relation to low-carbon energy scenarios could have a significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents, both in physical and monetary terms. Compared with the base case scenario, implementation of various low-carbon energy scenarios could prevent 2804-8249 and 9870-23,100 PM10-related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. It could also decrease incidence of several relevant diseases. The corresponding economic benefits could reach 507.31-1492.33 and 2642.45-6192.11 million U.S. dollars (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. These findings illustrate that a low-carbon energy policy will not only decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, but also play an active role in the reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and promotion of public health. Our estimates can provide useful information to local decision-makers for further cost-benefit analysis.