Climatic Suitability for Malaria Transmission in Africa, 1911-1995

Overview

Journal Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Specialty Science

Date 2003 Dec 10

PMID 14663146

Citations 44

Authors

Jennifer Small

Scott J Goetz

Simon I Hay

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends. In areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.

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