Twenty-year Survival After Coronary Artery Surgery: an Institutional Perspective from Emory University

Background: Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery has been performed frequently for symptomatic coronary atherosclerotic heart disease for more than 30 years. However, uncertainty exists regarding the relationship between long-term survival after CABG and readily available clinical correlates of mortality.

Methods And Results: We studied outcome at 20 years by age, sex, and other variables in 3939 patients who had CABG surgery from 1973 to 1979 in the Emory University System of Healthcare. Twenty-year survival, freedom from myocardial infarction, and freedom from repeat CABG were 35.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 33.9% to 37.3%), 66.6% (95% CI, 64.6% to 68.6%), and 59.1% (95% CI, 56.9% to 61.5%). Multivariate correlates of late mortality were age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46 per 10 years), female sex (HR, 1.21), hypertension (HR, 1.44), angina class (HR, 1.07 per class increase of 1), prior CABG (HR, 1.72), ejection fraction (HR, 1.07 per 10-point decrease), number of vessels diseased (HR, 1.11 per 1-vessel increase), and weight (HR, 1.04 per 10 kg). Twenty-year survival by age was 55%, 38%, 22%, and 11% for age <50, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, and >70 years at the time of initial surgery. Survival at 20 years after surgery with and without hypertension was 27% and 41%, respectively. Similarly, 20-year survival was 37% and 29% for men and women.

Conclusions: Symptomatic coronary atherosclerotic heart disease requiring surgical revascularization is progressive with continuing events and mortality. Clinical correlates of mortality significantly impact survival over time and may help identify long-term benefits after CABG.