What We Do Not Know About Juvenile Sexual Reoffense Risk

States have increasingly subject juvenile sexual offenders to sex offender registration and commitment under sexual predator laws in recent years. These statutes assume that sexual offenders present a sustained risk to recommit sexually violent crimes over an extended time period. Implicit in this assumption is that criminal sexual behavior is a product of some form of stable trait or condition that continues to push the juvenile toward sexually violent behaviors as they get older. This article examines these assumptions in light of the available research on the stability of sexually offending behavior in juveniles. The difficulties attendant to applying adult offender risk assessment models to juvenile sexual offenders are addressed. The available evidence indicates that the development and persistence of sexually criminal behavior is poorly understood, making the prediction of sustained sexual offending in juveniles that is required by some sexual predator statutes a particularly difficult task.