Association Between Mortality and Indicators of Traffic-related Air Pollution in the Netherlands: a Cohort Study

Background: Long-term exposure to particulate matter air pollution has been associated with increased cardiopulmonary mortality in the USA. We aimed to assess the relation between traffic-related air pollution and mortality in participants of the Netherlands Cohort study on Diet and Cancer (NLCS), an ongoing study.

Methods: We investigated a random sample of 5000 people from the full cohort of the NLCS study (age 55-69 years) from 1986 to 1994. Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants (black smoke and nitrogen dioxide) was estimated for the 1986 home address. Exposure was characterised with the measured regional and urban background concentration and an indicator variable for living near major roads. The association between exposure to air pollution and (cause specific) mortality was assessed with Cox's proportional hazards models, with adjustment for potential confounders.

Findings: 489 (11%) of 4492 people with data died during the follow-up period. Cardiopulmonary mortality was associated with living near a major road (relative risk 1.95, 95% CI 1.09-3.52) and, less consistently, with the estimated ambient background concentration (1.34, 0.68-2.64). The relative risk for living near a major road was 1.41 (0.94-2.12) for total deaths. Non-cardiopulmonary, non-lung cancer deaths were unrelated to air pollution (1.03, 0.54-1.96 for living near a major road).

Interpretation: Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution may shorten life expectancy.