Predicting Natural Resolution of Alcohol-related Problems: a Prospective Behavioral Economic Analysis

This study investigated whether the relative allocation of discretionary monetary expenditures to alcoholic beverages versus savings (presumed to reflect relative preferences for immediate vs. delayed rewards) before quitting abusive drinking predicted natural resolution among untreated problem drinkers. Drinking, life events, income, and expenditures were assessed for the year before resolution and again 1 and 2 years later (N = 50). Compared with those who relapsed, participants who remained resolved at 2 years reported proportionally more pre-resolution discretionary expenditures on savings and less on alcohol. Income and expenditures were similar across groups. The findings support the predictive utility of this functional index of relative reward preferences that operate over variable time horizons and suggest that temporal discounting is an important process in addictive behavior change.