Simple Prognostic Model for Patients with Multiple Myeloma: a Single-center Study in Japan

The range of survival duration in myeloma patients is wide and several percent of patients live longer than 10 years. Therefore, a precise prediction of survival for the individual patient is required to decide treatment. We evaluated possible prognostic factors at diagnosis for 116 Japanese patients with multiple myeloma. Twelve parameters reported to affect survival were analyzed using a log rank test and stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression. Factors identified as adversely affecting survival were age over 60 years, male sex, blood hemoglobin less than 8.5 g/dl, platelets less than 100 x 10(9)/l, serum creatinine level more than 2.0 mg/dl, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) level more than 6.0 mg/l, and serum beta2-microglobulin level more than 6.0 mg/l. Among them, only high age and high serum CRP level were independently prognostic for poor survival. In conclusion, we have established a simple prognostic model for Japanese myeloma patients only, using factors that can be determined in routine examinations without the need of subjective information.