Risk Factors for Renal Failure: the WHO Mulinational Study of Vascular Disease in Diabetes

Aims/hypothesis: We aimed to examine risk factors for, and differences in, renal failure in diabetic patients from 10 centres.

Methods: Risk factors for renal failure were examined in 3,558 diabetic patients who did not have renal disease at baseline in the WHO Multinational Study of Vascular Disease in Diabetes (WHO MSVDD).

Results: In 959 subjects with Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus and 2,559 with Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus, the average follow-up was 8.4 years (+/- 2.7). By the end of the follow-up period 53 patients in the Type I diabetic group and 134 patients in the Type II diabetic group had developed renal failure (incidence rate 6.3:1,000 person years). Increasing age and duration of diabetes were associated with renal failure in Type II and Type I diabetes. In Type II diabetes duration of diabetes was a more important risk factor than age. In both Type I and Type II diabetic retinopathy and proteinuria were strongly associated with renal failure. Systolic blood pressure was associated with renal failure in Type I but not in Type II diabetic patients. ECG abnormalities at baseline, self-reported smoking and cholesterol were not associated with renal failure. Triglycerides were measured in a subset of centres. Among those with Type II, but not Type I diabetes, triglycerides were associated with renal failure independently of systolic blood pressure, proteinuria or retinopathy. In Type II diabetes fasting plasma glucose was associated with renal failure independently of other risk factors.

Conclusion/interpretation: We have confirmed the role of proteinuria and retinopathy as markers of renal failure and the importance of hyperglycaemia in renal failure in Type I and Type II diabetes. Plasma triglycerides seem to be an important predictor of renal failure in Type II diabetes. In Type I diabetes systolic blood pressure is an important predictor of renal failure.