Per Capita Alcohol Consumption and All-cause Mortality in 14 European Countries

Aims: (1) To estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and male all-cause mortality in 14 European countries. (2) To compare the estimates with predictions from the U-shaped curve at the aggregate level.

Data And Method: The outcome measures comprised annual data, after 1950, on male mortality (all-cause mortality and mortality from diseases) for the following age groups: 15+, 15-29, 30-49, 50-69 and 70+ years. Female mortality was included as a control variable. Alcohol sales were used as proxy for per capita consumption. The data were analysed using the Box-Jenkins technique. The estimated alcohol effects were pooled within low-, medium- and high-consumption countries.

Results: For all-cause mortality (15+), the effect estimates were significantly positive in eight of the 14 countries. The effect on mortality of a 1-litre increase in consumption tended to be stronger in low-consumption countries (3% per litre) than in medium- and high-consumption countries (1%). This pattern deviates from that predicted from the U-shaped curve. No significant impact of alcohol was found in the youngest age group when mortality from diseases was used as the outcome.

Conclusions: Increases in overall consumption seem to be associated with increases in total mortality. Differences in drinking patterns are discussed as a possible explanation for the variation between country groups in alcohol effect.